Hotspot The Major Rivers

Climate change provides a new challenge as far as water management in the area surrounding the great rivers is concerned. The climate is changing, resulting in an increase in precipitation and evaporation, increased river flow during the winter and an increase in dry conditions during the summer. Rising sea levels and increasing river flow mean, in the absence of any extra measures, an increased risk of flooding. A higher risk of both flooding and drought is not only an issue in the lower-lying areas of the Netherlands, but in the higher areas too. Spatial planning in the area surrounding the great rivers is also expected to continue to change and this, for example, can result in a reduction in the water capacity of the river system as a whole.

The Dutch government has already implemented measures within the following programmes: ‘Water Management in the 21st Century’ (Waterbeheer 21ste eeuw), ‘Room for the River’ (Ruimte voor de Rivier) and ‘Flood Risk and Safety in the Netherlands’ (Veiligheid Nederland in Kaart). However, most of these programmes assume that the current extremes in weather conditions will continue in the same pattern in the long term. For example, the current government safety policy for the major rivers consists primarily of measures named in the Room for the River key planning decision, in which four long term scenarios have been calculated up to 2040, along with their effects on the flooding risk. It is assumed in all four scenarios that proposed key planning decision measures are implemented by 2015 at the latest, when it is expected that safety levels in a number of dyked areas will still be lower than current statutory standards.

In addition, the national parliamentary committee for Transport, Public Works and Water Management has said that it is not possible to assume that Germany will maintain its currently low standard levels. After all, large areas of low-lying Germany will be flooded if floods repeatedly occur at a relatively high rate. Rather, it can be assumed that, in the long term, Germany will also adjust its standards in order to protect its population and assets against high water levels. The Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management has initiated the ‘Attention for Safety' (Aandacht Voor Veiligheid) research project, to investigate which additional measures are necessary in the long term in order to climate proof the Netherlands as far as flooding is concerned. There is active cooperation with spatial planning in order to investigate which spatial developments and investments will be necessary in the future.

Objective
Develop knowledge regarding water safety and climate adaptation for three case studies in the area surrounding the major rivers. The case study objectives are:

• Biesbosch-Haringvliet: clarify what climate change will mean for the Biesbosch and Haringvliet areas and surroundings
• Betuwe-Lower Rhine: investigate to what extent it is possible to implement measures further upstream in the German Lower Rhine area in order to reduce flooding in the Netherlands
• Kampen/IJssel delta: assess deepening of main river channel, bypass and master plan for the Kampen/IJssel delta, in the light of climate change

The themes are:

1. what are the most important changes in climate and climatic extremes and what influence do these changes have on the various functions in the area?
2. what is the influence of other long term trends, i.e. socio-economic and administrative changes and spatial planning?
3. what are the risks resulting from future developments?
4. which investments are vulnerable, what is the potential damage and how can investments be made climate proof?

	HSGR02: Assesment of upstream flood risk in the Rhine Basin The Rhine basin is a densely populated river basin and economically the most important river in Western Europe. Currently, more than 10 million people are living in areas at risk of flooding events, especially in the upstream German area of the river Rhine (ICPR, 2001). Flood risk is expected to increase due to climate change and socio-economic development in flood-prone areas. This requires a better... read more
	HSGR06: Adaptation to Meuse flood risk In 1993 and 1995 the Meuse overflowed its banks, leading to extensive flood damage in the Netherlands. Due to climate and land use change, the frequency of high-flows is expected to increase in the future. Furthermore, the potential damage of floods is expected to increase due to socioeconomic developments in flood-prone areas. Flood risk assessment (where risk is defined as... read more
	HSGR07 Because of the prospect of climate change, as well as various other changes, the boundary conditions for flood defences may be subject to change in the future. This project therefore assesses, at various levels of detail, climate-proof flood defence alternatives for three locations along the Nederrijn/Lek that currently do not meet the standards. These alternatives will, after completion, be so robust... read more
	HSRR07/HSGR08: Relationship between perceived flood risks, problem ownership and household and business adaptation choices The present project focuses on climate-related flood safety issues in a spatial planning context. It investigates the relationship between flood risk perception, problem ownership and household and business adaptation choices (i.e. impacts on the attractiveness... read more

Projects and Publications
Watch the overview with all the Major Rivers projects and publications.